Marley’s Ghost

To me, the significance of the winter solstice is not that it is the longest night and the shortest day; it is the promise of the sun before the depth of winter. It is the sign that hope and joy overcome dark and cold- be it of the seasons or of our souls. The winter solstice is about renewal, beginnings and the coming warmth of spring. It is a time of celebration; for each day is longer, brighter, stronger. Perhaps that is why the winter solstice tends to bring to mind “A Christmas Carol” by Charles Dickens.

Like many people I enjoy witnessing Scrooge’s transformation from ‘business’ Scrooge to ‘humanitarian’ Scrooge with the aid of the three spirits. At the start of the story, Scrooge, like many of us, is a victim of siloed thinking. This is what I am, and this is what I do. And my worldview and assessment of others is based on the measures I use to quantify and qualify success in the context of my silo.

`But you were always a good man of business, Jacob,’
faltered Scrooge, who now began to apply this to himself.

But it’s Marley’s Ghost who is the hero and guiding light of the story. His words are the ones to which we should pay attention- for he is the bringing the change of consciousness. He may even be the first businessman to promote the Triple Bottom Line, who also understood the hierarchical value of the Planet>People >Profit, and explained the scope and balance of concerns needed to achieve sustainability.

`Business!’ cried the Ghost, wringing its hands again.                        `Mankind was my business. The common welfare was my business; charity, mercy, forbearance, and benevolence, were, all, my business.     The dealings of my trade were but a drop of water                                                in the comprehensive ocean of my business!’                                             Marley’s ghost

The story of Scrooge shows that we can change our behaviors and our priorities when we have a change of consciousness. He may have needed the assistance and reminders of three consultants (Christmas Past, Christmas Present and Christmas Future), but ultimately it is Scrooge who, in heart, mind and body, comprehends the need for change.

Men’s courses will foreshadow certain ends,                                                              to which, if persevered in, they must lead.                                                             But if the courses be departed from,                                                                             the ends will change.

And so it is with Scrooge. He departs from his previous course and thrives by living his altered life.

He did it all, and infinitely more;

And so it is with humanity today. The extreme environmental events we are living with and through; the growing disparity of incomes; the social angst, malaise, anger, hunger, and frustration are the foreshadowing of the growing grimness of our coming future if we stay our current course.

Will we embrace the words of Marley as Scrooge did, and change? Or will we stay in our silos and pretend that our trade is more important than everything else now and forever?

It is are not only for what we do that we are held responsible,                        but also for what we do not do.                                                                              Moliere

 

 

-Tim

 

 

 

except for Moliere,

all quotes are from “A Christmas Carol” by Charles Dickens

 

 

 

We are all on this together

 “We are caught in an inescapable network of mutuality                                                    tied in a single garment of destiny,                                                                      whatever affects one directly affects all indirectly.”

Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.                                                                                                      Letter from a Birmingham Jail

Atmospheric CO2 increases as Seas, Soil and Trees are Overwhelmed

On December 12, 2015 the Paris Climate Accord (PCA)*1 was adopted by consensus of the 195 members of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). News reports showed the celebrative mood of the participants. Not only had the PCA been agreed upon, but the plan was going to try to limit global average temperature increase to 1.5oC (2.7oF) surpassing the original goal of limiting global warming to 2oC (3.6oF).

In 2016, the amount of atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) rose by 3.3 ppm*2 (25.77 billion metric tonnes of CO2)*3 to 403.3ppm, the largest single year increase in 30 years. In a healthy, functionally stable ecosystem, the carbon exchange balances out on an annual cycle between the atmosphere, the ocean and organisms. It is during transition periods from one type of climate to another that we see major releases or sequestrations of atmospheric gases.

In 2017, the world is witnessing the first increase in CO2 emissions in 3 years*4. The estimated rise is 2%, most of that coming from an increase in the use of Coal.

The Paris Climate Agreement is a well-intended document. While the PAC was a step forward in getting people and countries to agree that climate change was real, was taking place, was a liability, was human caused, and that the worst outcomes could be avoided by human action, the agreement had several weaknesses.

One was that each country set its own voluntary, non-legally binding target projections to reduce emissions. The second was the 5-year time lag between agreeing to the PAC and the official start of the agreement. The third, and most problematic weakness, was that the cumulative promise made by all parties was too meager to achieve the stated goal; thus creating the Paris Gap*5between preference and reality.

There is another critical factor to remember when trying to mitigate climate change, and that is simple reality – contrary to human nature – that humans are not in control of the myriad synergistic interactions that make up the life sustaining characteristics of Planet Earth. With climate change,

 we’re not only dealing with forces of a far greater variety                            than even the atomic physicist encounters, but with life itself.”                     Dr. Frack C. Baxter*6

The increase in atmospheric CO2 in 2016 was not about an increase in emissions, but the decrease in the capacity of the ocean and plant life to uptake (absorb or use) the CO2 due to droughts, wildfires, and high temperatures*7. Humanity’s previous emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) contributes to the cause, severity, and changing frequency of these events making more and more of these events Human’s Nature.

The increase in CO2 emissions in 2017 was a result of the increased burning of coal*8. In some cases, the coal was burnt to generate additional electricity to support a growing economy. In other cases, coal was burnt to replace the hydroelectric power that was unavailable due to reduced water volume in rivers. The degree to which we humans choose to think locally rather than planetarily is the measure of the amount of “unintended consequences” that we can generate globally.

Actions speak louder than words. Knowledge is neither a viable nor functional substitution for doing.

Nations do behave wisely once they have exhausted all other alternatives Abba Eban, Foreign Minister, Israel. 1966-1974*9

it’s not enough that we do our best;                                                              sometimes we have to do what’s required.                                                     Winston Churchill*10

Let’s hope we get all of our insufficient efforts and rationales for procrastination out of our way and out of our minds quickly enough to fulfill the promises we made to ourselves and our descendants in the Paris Climate Agreement. Failure should not be our default option of convenience or intentions for

we are entering a period of consequences.                                                     Winston Churchill*11

 

 

 

– Tim

*1https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference

*2 http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-41778089

*3https://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=45

*4http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-41941265

*5http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-41802982

*6http://www.ossfoundation.us/projects/environment/global-warming/frank-capra-warns-of-global-warming-1958

*7http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-41778089

*8http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-41941265

*9 https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/11/11/exhaust-alternatives/

*10 https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/15990-it-is-not-enough-that-we-do-our-best-sometimes

*11http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/Locusts.html

Sustainability in a Changing World, a talk by Alize´ Carrère

On Monday night I was at a talk by Alize´ Carrère.

While the presentation was entitled “Sustainability in a Changing World,” its real focus was on how individuals/communities/cultures are adapting to the climate change that they are currently facing.

Her key examples were the Lavakas of Madagascar, floating gardens and floating farms in Bangladesh, The Shupta Project, and the last was about a community spear fishing Crown of Thorn Starfish and turning them into organic compost.

According to Darwin’s Origin of Species,                                                                        it is not the most intellectual of the species that survives;                                      it is not the strongest that survives;                                                                             but the species that survives is the one that is able best to adapt and adjust to the changing environment in which it finds itself.                           Leon C. Megginson

The Lavaka are the “holes” made in the landscape when the ground collapses after deforestation and the tree roots are no longer available to help stabilize the soil structure. The question then becomes what should one do – restore the prior landscape or adapt to the new landscape? Restore would focus on replanting the missing forest to regain habitat while creating a carbon sink. However, many of the local individuals have opted to adapt to the new landscape. The vegetation in the Lavakas is less prone to fire, and the drainage in the Lavakas makes them an ideal place to grow crops.

As to the floating gardens and farms in Bangladesh, the issue there is that the combination of Sea Level Rise, more powerful monsoons, and river flooding due to glacier melt means that in some parts of the country ‘wet’ has become the predominate condition. As such housing, schooling and agriculture have needed to adapt to a water world. So boats have become the architecture of education, while rafts and constructed floating islands have become the ‘fields’ of farming. Frequently the buoyant farms have nets suspended underneath them for fish farming and/or a mesh enclosure around them that serves as a duck pen. Adaptive innovation provided a way to maintain community independence thus avoiding the uncertainty of becoming a climate refugee.

The Shupa Project has allowed people to continue farming and living in the region even though the presence of glacial melt water has become unpredictable. The adaptation in this project was to siphon water from the glacier fed streams and use the difference in pressure between high elevation source of the water and the lower elevation farming areas to create a water fountain. During the winter, the water droplets are caught on strands of thread or metal and freeze. Some of the ice shupas created are as much as 90 feet tall! Then the melt water from the ice shupas is used as the irrigation source for agriculture.

Regarding the Crown of Thorn Starfish (COTs), this issue was generated by over harvesting the trumpet shell conch because of their value in the tourist and shell trades. Once the predator was gone, the COTs population increased and resulted in the overgrazing and killing of the coral reefs. The adaptation was to spear the COTs and transport them to land. (The COTs are speared due to the toxicity of the starfish). Once the COTs have dried, they are crushed and used as fertilizer.

Alize´ spoke of the three options a community has relative to environmental changes it is experiencing: mitigate, adapt, or suffer. The degree to which the previous examples are coping mechanism or solutions will be determined by the success of mitigation at the planetary scale relative to the adaptive capacity of the community.

She then expanded the conversation to how do you teach high-stakes problem in a low-stakes environment? The concern is that those with a “comfortable reality” are potentially the least adaptable. Adaptation is a mindset. But if you believe that you or your community has sufficient financial capability and an adequate period of time to avoid or minimize the impact of a changing environment, then you may not respond to the coming risks and liabilities soon enough or fast enough. Rather than adapting, the functional outcome of your strategy may be to make yourself a climate refugee. Currently, it is the people on the edge who are adapting.

She closed the presentation with the request that we make an effort to change the narrative of climate change and its associated attributes from doom and loss to one of resilience. With apologies to Vivian Greene, our climate focus should not be on the size of the harm, but our ability to adapt to the change if we want our communities to have a viable and, hopefully, verdant future.

– Tim Rumage

7 Nov. 2017

Note:

Images of the aforementioned and similar projects can be found on line.

Alize´ is a Cultural Ecologist and a National Geographic Explorer

http://www.alizecarrere.com/

 

 

President’s Climate Council has been disbanded.

The disbanding of the Climate Council1 was an easy story to miss in the last couple of weeks of statutes, protests, Harvey and floods. Even today’s news of the US State Department’s proposed reorganization2, which functionally demotes the discussions on Climate Change as well as the Arctic Region, was barely mentioned as the media brought us images of the rescues of the now internally displaced persons from Houston and surrounding regions.

The eye sees only what the mind is prepared to comprehend

Henri Bergson

How we view Hurricane Harvey3 and how we view the news that for the first time a LNG tanker crossed the northern sea route from Europe to Asia without the assistance of an icebreaker4 is a reflection of how we think. Given the geographical separation, it would be easy to see these as isolated events. Given their historic context and nature (unprecedented flooding versus a successful voyage through the northwest passage) it would be reasonable to disconnect the two events.

Yet there is a way to connect both events. Climate change, in the context of global warming, has been central to the reduction of both the surface area and the thickness of polar ice5, thus making a northwest passage possible. That same warming of the oceans is what has brought the Gulf of Mexico to record high temperatures6 facilitating the strength of hurricanes. High air temperature also allows for greater water content in the atmosphere, which can trigger larger rain events. Add to this a heat wave in the west and a high-pressure area to the east and the hurricane gets trapped7,8 where it is.

Is Hurricane Harvey a once in a lifetime event? I doubt it. It may be a once-in-a-lifetime experience for Houston, but not for the Gulf or the U.S.

What does any of this have to do with disbanding the Climate Council? You cannot use information you do not have. And you cannot evaluate the relative importance of the answer to a question that was not asked.

We are in a time of increasingly rapid climate change. The past is losing its validity as a model for predicting the future. As the projections on rainfall for the Houston region were being made, many people found the numbers hard to believe. They did not comply with past personal experience or recorded memory. But the truth of the projections continues to play out.

I can appreciate the wish that climate change will not happen. But I also accept the reality that it is. Welcomed or not, we need climate councils. We need people in the room when decisions are being made who are willing to ask the uncomfortable questions, and are knowledgeable about the dynamic projections of our coming climate and its implications. We need people who can help us prepare for the next Harvey while also offering insights on how to reduce the number, frequency, and scale of the future sons and daughters of Harvey.

At its core a climate council is really about vulnerability assessment and risk management. They are trying to save lives and minimize future property, infrastructure, and economic loss.

Disbanding the climate council does not make climate change in all its various forms go away. It just makes us more unprepared. And that is a risk we should not accept.

Tim

29 August 2017

 

1 http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/347269-trump-disbands-federal-advisory-panel-on-climate-change-report

2 https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3982871-State-Letter.html – document/p1

3 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/us/hurricane-harvey-texas.html?mcubz=0

4 http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-41037071

5 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NP0L1PG9ag

6 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201613

7 https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/08/25/why-hurricane-harveys-future-so-uncertain-hard-predict/601792001/

8 http://abcnews.go.com/US/harvey-stay-texas-multiple-days/story?id=49417744

Earth Overshoot Day is Here Again!

Happy August 2nd, 2017, the earliest Earth Overshoot Day Ever.

This year, humanity has been able to exceed the bio-capacity of the Earth 6 days earlier than it did last year and 11 days earlier than 2015. I am well aware that many of us get anxious about big events. Sometimes we want them to come sooner because we want to enjoy them. Sometimes we want them to come simply so we can get past them. Earth Overshoot Day should never fall into either category!

In fact, Earth Overshoot Day1 is one of those days that should never happen.

We all actively, if unknowingly, participate in creating Earth Overshoot Day. We generate Earth Overshoot Day through our collective, cumulative and continuous generation of waste and pollution, as well as our financial support of disposable objects, “non-repairable” technology, excessive packaging, extensive shipping and over harvesting of resources. Coupling those activities with our unawareness or insensitivity to the implications and scale of how things are made, grown, manufactured, used and disposed creates a formula for accelerating the arrival of Earth Overshoot Day.

The long-term concern regarding Earth Overshoot Day is that every year we overshoot the bio-capacity of the planet is a year in which we reduce the ability, robustness, resilience, and bio-capacity of the Earth to support our species.   The earlier Earth Overshoot Day arrives, the more risk we put on our long-term survival.

If we use the common estimates for population growth and species loss, we will add 80 million people2 while loosing 54,750 species3 in the next 365 days. That is a rapid annual increase in need/demand while suffering a major loss in biological resources.  Unless we actively engage in reconceptualizing and redesigning how humanity could/can positively interact with and support/enhance the regenerative bio-capacity of the planet, Earth Overshoot Day will continue to come earlier and earlier – putting us at ever increasing risk.

Earth Overshoot Day is not really a measure of planetary health and happiness. Instead it is a measure of how well we are getting along with the planet. It is a measure of whether or not we are acting in a way that supports the continuation of our civilization. If there are no Earth Overshoot Days, then we are supporting the mechanism and systems that promote our continuation. If there are Earth Overshoot Days, then we are not. This year’s record early Earth Overshoot Day indicates that we are not saving ourselves from ourselves. And that has to stop.

We need to roll back the calendar on Earth Overshoot Day. Right now we are using 20 months of Earth bio-capacity per year. At a minimum we need to match demand with capability and thrive on 12 months of bio-capacity per year. If we want to repair the harm done by this and previous Earth Overshoot Days, then we will need to prosper on 11 months of bio-capacity per year until we make the system whole again. These changes are not as daunting as they seem. Currently 60% of our ecological footprint goes to absorbing Carbon pollution1.   Getting rid of pollution and utilizing waste as a resource does most of the restoration for us. When we not only remember that all things are connected, but act in a way that supports the connections, we can say good-by to Earth Overshoot Day. And that would be a day worth celebrating.

 

Tim Rumage

1 http://www.overshootday.org/

2 http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ – growthrate

3 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/17/un-environment-programme-_n_684562.html

4 http://www.footprintnetwork.org/2016/03/08/national-footprint-accounts-2016-carbon-makes-60-worlds-ecological-footprint/

General Reference: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/

 

http://www.humansandnature.org/mathis-wackernagel

Free the data: Compiling the June 2017, Quartermaster’s Report.

While preparing the Quartermaster’s Report for June on This Spaceship Earth, I was surprised, frustrated and eventually angry about the amount of current and historical data that was not longer readily and publicly available regarding climate change, global warming and their impacts on the environment and communities. Most of the information gaps are from US Government websites or sites that have been reliant on reports and publications from government supported research.

Why? I can understand that the topics are not popular nor are they filled with stories of good cheer. But really, are we that eager to be ignorant or irresponsible? The Quartermaster’s report is analytical not political. It is a status report on where we are and the recent trends that got us there. Yes, the report does imply a question – do you like where we are and the direction of the trend line – is this the trajectory that you want humanity to follow.

As an ethicist, a scientist, a researcher, a professor and a Dad, there are a few maxims that I find important to remember. They are: you cannot use information you do not have; you cannot evaluate the importance of the answer to the question you did not ask; your formal and informal education shapes both your knowledge and your ignorance; you cannot solve a problem by ignoring it; and as much as one might hope it is not true- denying reality does not change reality.

As Jennifer McCrickerd has said, “Becoming engaged in solvable, relevant, novel problems is conducive to survival.” But we need information to help us decide the when, what, and how of where to engage.

As Donald Trump tweeted at 1:31 PM on 3 August 2015, We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. — Albert Einstein.” So let’s honor the call to a different way of thinking and up our game. The focus needs to be solving problems, not hiding them.

Free the data.

Tim

 

 

 

 

Overview of the 15 June 2017 Quartermaster’s Update

We continue to operate This Spaceship Earth in the “red zone.”

While CO2 emissions appear to be stabilizing, we are accomplishing that feat by increasing our use of a natural gas, which has a greater global warming potential than CO2.

New studies and reports show how ubiquitous our pollutants are in the ocean and the growing risk posed by plastic pollution in the marine environment.

The rate of ice melt in both Greenland and Antarctica is increasing and putting coastal communities at great risk.

We are creating greater potential risks through the loss of soil and coral reefs.

Commentary

Our on-going overuse of the planet’s resources and capability puts our future at risk.

Gaylord Nelson wrote

“The wealth of the nation is its air, water, soil, forests, minerals, rivers, lakes, oceans, scenic beauty, wildlife habitats and biodiversity . . . that’s all there is. That’s the whole economy. That’s where all the economic activity and jobs come from.These biological systems are the sustaining wealth of the world.”

Functionally, even the World Bank agrees with him. Ecosystem Services represent 63% of the Planetary Economy, as those services provide us with the raw materials and primary needs to make humanity’s portion of the economy a possibility.

As you review the Quartermaster’s Update, there are two questions you might consider.

First – how well do your assumptions about each topic match the reality of the data?

Second – does the information reflect an outcome that you wish humanity to achieve?

Your reflection and your response to your answers of those two questions will determine your consciousness and participation in defining and creating our common future.

Seriously, what is the advantage, the upside, of continuing to jeopardize the future of humanity?

 

Tim

 

Quartermaster’s Update, 15 June 2017

 Tim Rumage, Chief Science Officer and Quartermaster of This Spaceship Earth

Comparing data from 15 June 2017 with 4 September 2016 and the 1st (2015) Quartermaster’s Report (QMR) published in the book “this Spaceship Earth” by David Houle and Tim Rumage.

Human Population

2017 –            7,511, 848, 787 people        (15 June 2017, 2130 EDT)

2016 –                        7,448,116, 815 people         (4 September 2016)

2015 QMR –   7,307,492,161 people

http://www.worldometers.info

Net population increase

2017 –               159 people /minute

2016 –            159 people/min

2015 QMR – 148 people/min

http://www.worldometers.info

 

Temperature

NASA, NOAA Data Show 2016 Warmest Year on Record Globally

Globally averaged temperatures in 2016 were 1.78 degrees Fahrenheit (0.99 degrees Celsius) warmer than the mid-20th century mean. This makes 2016 the third year in a row to set a new record for global average surface temperatures.

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-data-show-2016-warmest-year-on-record-globally

 

Gavin Schmidt, director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said. “It’s unprecedented in 1,000 years. There’s no period that has the trend seen in the 20th century in terms of the inclination (of temperatures).”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/30/nasa-climate-change-warning-earth-temperature-warming

 

Climate

Global Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions

17,384,818,472 tons as of 15 June 2017

from fossil-fuel combustion and industrial processes

 

2017 –            35,295,474,384 tonnes+

2014 – 35,900,000,000 tonnes*

2012 – 34,500,000,000 tonnes (data used for 1st QMR)

+ estimate based on current rate of emissions

*http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/15/files/GCP_budget_2015_v1.02.pdf

+http://www.worldometers.info/

Translation Equivalency – global anthropogenic CO2 emissions measured in units of 4 tonne Elephants launched into the air/second /year

2017 – 280 elephants/second based on current emission rates

2014 –            284 elephants/second

2012 –            273 elephants/second

 

Annual Average Atmospheric Concentrations of CO2

in parts per million (ppm)

2017 – 407.68 ppm^ (average year to date) (~129.68 ppm {46.65%}                above pre-industrial levels)

2016 – 404.21 ppm^           (~126.21 ppm {45.4%} above pre-industrial levels)

2015 – 400.83 ppm*

2014 – 398.61 ppm*

2013 – 396.48 ppm*

2012 – 393.82 ppm*

*https://www.co2.earth/annual-co2

^ ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_mm_mlo.txt

 

pre-industrial levels of atmospheric CO2 ~ 278 ppm

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/history.html

 

 

Earth Overshoot Day comes earlier

2017 –                        2 August

2016 –            8 August

1st QMR –       13 August

net change –     6 days earlier than 2016, 11 days earlier than 2015/QMR

 

Earth Overshoot Day marks the date when humanity’s demand for ecological resources and services in a given year exceeds what Earth can regenerate in that year. Minimum safe date for balancing demand with resources and services is December 31st.

Earth Overshoot Day 2017

World’s Ecological Footprint rises to 1.7 Earths

2017-    1.7 planets

2016 –     1.6 planets

1st QMR   1.56 planets

 

Today humanity uses the equivalent of 1.7 planets to provide the renewable resources we use and absorb our waste. This means it now takes the Earth 20.4 months to regenerate what we use in 12 months

http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/world_footprint/.

 

 

 

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

There is more to Global Warming than CO2 emissions. The 4 major greenhouse gases are Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N20) and Fluorinated Carbons. Carbon Dioxide has recieived the most focus because of the large quantities of CO2 released into the atmosphere each year.

https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases

 

But the other gases all have greater Global Warming Potential (GWP).

When measuring their 100-year Global Warming Potential CO2 is the baseline.

CO2 = 1

CH4 = 21 (or 1 pound of CH4 has the GWP equivalent to 21 pounds of CO2)

N20 = 310 (or 1 pound of N20 has the GWP equivalent to 310 pounds of CO2)

Fluorinated Gases have a GWP ranging from 140 for the refrigerant HFC-152a to 23,900 for Sulfur hexafluoride

(or 1 pound of HFC-152a has the GWP equivalent to 140 pounds of CO2 while

1 pound of Sulfur hexafluoride has the GWP of 11.95 Tons of CO2)

http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/items/3825.php

CO2 emissions stay same for third year in row – despite global economy growing

Carbon dioxide emissions from energy have not increased for three years in a row even as the global economy grew, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.

Global emissions from the energy sector were 32.1 billion metric tonnes in 2016,the same as the previous two years, while the economy grew 3.1%, the organization said.

The stabilizing of CO2 emissions reflects a decreased use of coal coupled with an increased use of shale gas/natural gas, nuclear energy and other alternative/renewable energy sources.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/17/co2-emissions-stay-same-for-third-year-in-row-despite-global-economy-growing

Natural Gas can increase Global Warming Potential

In an effort to reduce CO2 emissions, companies and countries are reducing their use of coal and switching to and increasing their use of natural gas.

Given that natural gas is a fossil fuel composed almost entirely of methane.

(https://www.aga.org/what-natural-gas), this switch can actually increase Global Warming as methane has 21 times the global warming potential of CO2.

As we examine the viability of alternative fuels and energy sources, we need to make sure that we are reducing the overall global warming potential of the fuels we use, not just looking at the relative reduction of a single component and assuming that means a net-positive improvement in reducing or reversing global warming.

 

Rate of Global Ice Loss increasing.

Greenland:

Greenland is losing 350 gigatonnes of ice annually – 50% from ice melt, and 50% from glaciers moving into the ocean and breaking up into icebergs, which then melt.

The loss of Greenland ice is six times the volume of all the glaciers in the Alps.

Greenland has been melting more mass than it accumulates since 2000, putting Greenland in a negative balance.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/09/greenland-s-ice-sheets-are-disappearing-faster-than-predicted-here-s-why-you-should-care/

 

Antarctica:

Because the planet is warming, the glaciers in the Antarctic are losing an average of 83 gigatonnes of ice per year (91.5 billion US tons).

This is the equivalent of losing the water weight of Mount Everest every two years.

‘The mass loss of these glaciers is increasing at an amazing rate,’ said scientist Isabella Velicogna,

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3897520/The-Antarctic-melt-revealed-Dramatic-Nasa-images-staggering-loss-ice-south-pole.html

 

Status of Coral Reefs:

Coral reefs, the “rainforests of the sea,” are some of the most biodiverse and productive ecosystems on earth. They occupy only 0.2% of the ocean, yet are home to a quarter of all marine species: crustaceans, reptiles, seaweeds, bacteria, fungi, and over 4000 species of fish make their home in coral reefs. With an annual global economic value of $375 billion, coral reefs provide food and resources for over 500 million people in 94 countries and territories. But tragically, coral reefs are in crisis.

http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2011/06/13/losing-our-coral-reefs/

The world has lost roughly half its coral reefs in the last 30 years.

https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/soestwp/announce/news/scientists-race-to-save-worlds-coral-reefs/

Over the last 30-40 years 80% of coral in the Caribbean have been destroyed as well 50% of coral reefs in Indonesia and the Pacific.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/coral-bleaching.htm

 

Soil Loss

 24 billion tonnes of fertile or 12 million hectares of topsoil are lost every year.

The world population continues to increase while we destroy more and more topsoil. If this is allowed to continue there won’t be enough fertile soil left to feed a growing world population.

http://www.fao.org/soils-2015/events/detail/en/c/338738/

Earth has lost a third of arable land in past 40 years.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/02/arable-land-soil-food-security-shortage

It takes approximately 500 years to replace 25 millimeters (1 inch) of topsoil lost to erosion. The minimal soil depth for agricultural production is 150 millimeters. From this perspective, productive fertile soil is a nonrenewable, endangered ecosystem.

http://www.fewresources.org/soil-science-and-society-were-running-out-of-dirt.html

“Average (US) soil loss rate is 5.8 tons per acre per year, and increasing.”

“Soil can only rebuild at a rate of 0.24 tons per acre per year.”

Stan Buman, head of Land O’ Lakes Sustain program

http://www.cornandsoybeandigest.com/soil-health/economics-soil-loss

 

The United States is losing soil 10 times faster — and China and India are losing soil 30 to 40 times faster — than the natural replenishment rate

http://www.fewresources.org/soil-science-and-society-were-running-out-of-dirt.html

Plastics and Pollution in the Ocean

 Plastic Pollution in the World’s Oceans: More than 5 Trillion Plastic Pieces Weighing over 250,000 Tons Afloat at Sea

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0111913

8 million metric tones of plastic pollution enter the oceans each year from the world’s 192 coastal countries based on 2010 data. That is the equivalent of five grocery bags full of plastic trash on every foot (30 cm) of every nation’s coastline around the globe.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/world-s-oceans-clogged-by-millions-of-tons-of-plastic-trash/

Between 15 and 31% of the estimated 9.5 m tonnes (IUCN 2016) of plastic released into the oceans each year could be primary microplastics, almost two-thirds of which come from the washing of synthetic textiles and the abrasion of tyres (tires) while driving.

Tiny plastic particles washed off products such as synthetic clothes and car tyres (tires) could contribute up to 30% of the ‘plastic soup’ polluting the world’s oceans and – in many developed countries – are a bigger source of marine plastic pollution than plastic waste.

https://www.iucn.org/news/secretariat/201702/invisible-plastic-particles-textiles-and-tyres-major-source-ocean-pollution-%E2%80%9A%C3%84%C3%AC-iucn-study

Rate of Plastic Pollution

2010 – 551 lbs./sec

2016 – 664 lbs./sec

Pollution Has Worked Its Way Down To The World’s Deepest Waters

Alan Jamieson of Newcastle University, England and his team have been able to sample amphipods from the Mariana Trench in the northern Pacific – the deepest part of the world’s oceans.

Examination of the Amphipods showed that they were contaminated with PCBs — polychlorinated biphenyls*. “Every sample we had,” Jamieson says, “had contaminants in it at very high or extraordinarily high levels.” He compared the contamination level in his Mariana amphipods to crabs living in waters fed by one of China’s most polluted rivers, as well as amphipods from other parts of the world. “And what we were finding in the deepest place in the world were (levels) hugely higher, 50 times in some cases,” he says. He thinks the pollutants might get to the trenches by latching on to plastic that’s floating in the ocean. Fish and other marine animals absorb pollutants, as well. Eventually, the plastic and the dead animals fall to the bottom.

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/02/13/514997248/pollution-has-worked-its-way-down-to-the-worlds-deepest-waters

and

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-016-0051

 

*(PCB production was banned by the United States Congress in 1979 and by the Stockholm Convention of Persistent Organic Pollutants in 2001.

Porta, M; Zumeta, E (2002).”Implementing the Stockholm Treaty on Persistent Organic Pollutants”. Occupational and Environmental Medicine. 59:651-2.)

PCBs in Marine Mammals

One of the highest concentrations of toxic pollutants ever recorded in a marine mammal has been revealed in a Scottish killer whale that died in 2016.

The adult whale, known as Lulu, was a member of the UK’s last resident pod.

The level of PCBs found in Lulu’s blubber were 950mg/kg, more than 100 times the 9mg/kg limit above which damage to the health of marine mammals is known to occur. A 2016 analysis showed the average concentration for killer whales in the North-East Atlantic was about 150mg/kg.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/02/uk-killer-whale-died-extreme-levels-toxic-pollutants

Submitted by

Tim Rumage

Co-author, This Spaceship Earth

Co-founder, This Spaceship Earth, Inc.

Chief Science Officer and Quartermaster – This Spaceship Earth

 

June 8th is World Ocean Day

If there is magic on this planet, it is contained in water.                     Loren Eiseley – The Immense Journey

Some of my most profound memories come from my times at sea. Watching dolphins leaving ethereal trails as they swam through a bioluminescent layer in the North Atlantic. Standing on a headland in Newfoundland and seeing a Minke Whale

charge, roll, twist and swallow a school of Capelin in one mouthful. Witnessing a class at sea as flying fish leapt from the water, and the instructor talking about the fish’s adaptation to avoid predators only to have a flock of Magnificent Frigatebirds dive down and catch the fish while they were still in mid-air.

My life and work have given me the opportunity to see icebergs roll-over in the Labrador Sea, hand-lined for cod in the Bay of Fundy, experience the intense stillness of the Sargasso Sea, recorded the songs of Humpbacked Whales in their calving areas, be mesmerized by the grace of Blue Sharks as they swam between me and the surface, and study the life ways and life cycles of pelagic birds.

This is not to say that the ocean experiences have always been kind or a friend. There have been oil spills, fish kills, harmful algae blooms, vessel strikes on marine mammals, fisheries bycatch and mass stranding events. Not to mention white squalls, storms, winds, soaking rains, waterspouts, hurricanes, storm-surges, damaged ships, fog and high seas. I know and understand why ship captains built there homes on high ground and inland. The ocean is also the final resting place for several friends, family and acquaintances: some by choice and others because the sea decided it was their time.

The ocean reminds us that we are mere humans and should have more humility than hubris. The Ocean deserves the respect that we tend not to give it. Perhaps we will learn from our folly. But the least we can do is take one day a year and reflect upon its majesty and capability.

Tim